BETTING MISTAKES betting calculator
Making a profit from
betting is hard enough if you do everything right, but it
becomes almost impossible if you make mistakes. Below are
listed the most common mistakes that the average punter
makes and avoiding these is the first step to becoming
profitable in any form of betting.
Betting more than
you can afford to lose
Even bookmakers
don't want you to go broke. In fact, savvy bet takers
understand that it's crucial for gamblers to win a fair
share of their bets so that they're able to keep playing. A
player without money is of no value to the house. The best
way to preserve a sports betting bankroll is through the
implementation of some well-disciplined strategy. One
respected plan, called the "Kelly Criterion" after its
author, John L. Kelly, advocates betting a fixed fraction of
your bankroll on every play. Let's say you have a bankroll
of 4,400 units and you decide to wager 5% of it on each
play. Your first bet would be 220 units. If you win, you
wager 5% of your new bankroll of 4,600 units, or 230. If you
lose, you do the same, wager 5% of 4,180, or 209 units. A
virtue of the Kelly Criterion is that since you're betting
just a portion of your bankroll, you never can go
broke!
Trying to "get
even"
Get even for what, a
day? A week? A month? A year? Your life? Money wagered and
lost no longer belongs to the bettor so it's far more
important to wisely invest the cash you have remaining than
to chase the money that's already been lost. Each bet stands
or falls on its own merits and no one wager ever should be
viewed as a way to overcome past errors. Among other assets,
bettors require discipline and maturity to be successful.
It's inevitable that you're going to have some losing days.
Deal with it. Don't chase!
Betting too much on
one game
For the most part,
professional gamblers bet about the same on every play. The
reasoning is that a game either is good enough to play or it
isn't. Sophisticated gamblers understand that there really
is no such thing as a "lock" or a "best bet." A blown call
of an official or a fluke occurrence can decide the outcome
of an event. Dayjur was a "lock" to win the 1990 Breeders'
Cup Sprint when he jumped over a shadow approaching the
finish line and was beaten a neck by Safely Kept. Casual
bettors often compound the mistake of wagering too much on
one game with trying to get even, the first of our sports
betting mistakes. Doubling or tripling up on the final game
of the day in an effort to recoup the day's losses is a
recipe for financial ruin. Bet more when you're ahead, not
when you're behind.
Investing in a game
just because it's on television
A pizza, a six-pack
and a wager on the Monday night football game right? We get
it! Look, we're not saying you have to replace the pizza
with quiche, toss the brew in favour of diet soda or even
forgo a bet but it might be a good idea to wager a quarter
of what you usually invest on a game. Make a recreational
bet if you must but save your serious wagering for those
games you like for a reason other than their availability on
TV.
Betting too few
games
That's right, too
few games. Conventional wisdom might advocate that you limit
your action and carefully pick your spots but professional
gamblers see it differently. "The fewer games you bet, the
more your outcome is subject to luck," explained one
sophisticated player who demanded anonymity. "You have to
bet enough games so that a bad call, a crazy bounce or a
freak play doesn't crush you. Anyone can lose one game, or
two out of three games, but if you're a really good player,
you know you're going to come out on top if your sample is
large enough. The only way that happens is if you play
enough games."
Going with the
flow
There is no evidence
that a point spread move signals which team is going to win
the game. Sure, sometimes a football line moves from 1.7 to
1.3 and the favourite covers easily. "Smart money," claim
the neophytes. But just as often the team getting the money
does not cover the money. Truth is, "smart money" is smart
only about half the time in sports betting. Don't be
influenced by line movements.
Forgetting which is
the better team
It may be
fashionable to analyze reams of statistical data and examine
a myriad of complex psychological factors but bettors often
go astray because they fail to remember that the better team
still wins most of the time. Every year, the majority of NFL
and NBA teams with the best point spread records also are
those teams that are among the leaders in win percentage.
Sure, you can win a fair share of games by taking the points
in certain situations but when favourites play well, because
they're the better team, they usually cover. Or, to
paraphrase Damon Runyon, "The fight isn't always to the
strong or the race to the swift, but that's the way to
bet."
Relying on technical
trends
When you invest in a
stock or a mutual fund you're advised that "past results are
no guarantee of future success." That same caveat holds true
for sports betting where a historical perceptive is
interesting but hardly a harbinger of things to come.
Besides, many of these so-called "trends" are nothing more
than "back fitting," the fraudulent practice where a theory
is developed to conform to a series of results rather than
the accepted procedure where a theory is advanced and tested
by results. Most successful sports betting analysts believe
that each game must be evaluated on its own merits and that
a reliance on technical trends is little more than an excuse
for lazy handicapping.
Overreacting to the
most recent performance
A good rule of thumb
(or bankroll) is that a team never is as good as it looks
after a victory nor as weak as it appears after a defeat. In
other words, while more recent results do have more value, a
single very good or a lone very bad performance should not
be enough to wipe out a body of work. Thus, teams that are
blown out one game often can rebound in their next game.
Because good horses sometimes throw in a clinker or a
mediocre horse occasionally fires on all cylinders, horse
players, perhaps, understand this concept better than most
sports bettors.
Thinking that
offense alone will get the job done
You've heard it so
often that it's become a cliché - Defence wins
championships. Cliché or not, it's an accurate statement. If
a team goes cold in basketball it can stay in the game if it
plays staunch defence. In football, defence shortens the
field, takes the ball away and creates opportunities for the
offence to score easy points. In baseball, keep the ball in
the park and out of the power alleys and you're always just
a swing or two away from winning the game. Yet bettors often
become falsely enamoured with offence, with much of their
sports betting being done on teams that can score. The
Pistons won last year's NBA title with defence and the
Patriots captured their third Super Bowl in four years
because they could stop their opponents. Even the Red Sox,
who had a potent offence, finally won their first World
Series in 86 years because they added pitching (starter Curt
Schilling and closer Keith Foulke) and better infield
defence to their roster.
Placing too much
emphasis on injuries
Since the value of
an individual player is indirectly proportional to the
number of athletes who play at one time, the fewer the
players, the greater the value of each player. Thus, the
absence of a starter in basketball, where just five play at
one time, is far more significant than when a football team,
which has at least 22 starters, loses a player to injury. Of
course, bookmakers are quick to adjust lines after an injury
so the bettor rarely gains an advantage. In fact, because
teams often compensate for the loss of a key player with
more determination and effort, the gambler may be at a
disadvantage if he places too much weight on the absence.
What's more, the replacement player sometimes turns out to
be just as good as the starter. Remember that Thurman
Thomas' backup at Oklahoma
State
was
Barry Sanders.
Making too much of
psychology
Just because a team
is highly motivated doesn't necessarily mean it will win.
Effort counts, certainly, but it can't always overcome
talent. And there's nothing that says that the American
football team that won 50-0 last year isn't just as eager to
duplicate that result as the team that was humiliated on the
other end of that score is to reverse that outcome. Being
too psyched up for an opponent can translate to overly
aggressive play. In football, that can result in penalties,
such as encroachment or offsides. In basketball, being too
emotionally high can lead to fouls. In baseball, a player
who fails to control his emotions may chase pitches in the
batter's box.
While it's crucial
to identify the right side in sports betting, in order to
maximize chances for success, it's also imperative that the
bettor has knowledge of wagering techniques and principles.
A professional gambler put it another way: "If you're a
great handicapper and an average bettor, you probably can't
win. But if you're an average handicapper and a great
bettor, you've probably got enough of an edge to win. The
problem is, most people don't know how to wager."
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