STAKING PLANS betting calculator

Below are described some of the most common staking plans. There are many variations but for practical reasons only the main types are listed below.staking plans

Level stakes staking plans 

 staking plans

This is the simplest of plans, if you can call it that, and consists of deciding on an amount of money to bet and then placing that amount on every bet, no matter whether the odds are low or high or whether you "think" the horse has a good chance of winning or not. It might be an outsider which looks risky, but your tipster has given it so you have to bet otherwise you will kick yourself if it wins!staking plans

The only decision is at the start when you decide how much to bet. This will be a percentage of your betting bank and it should be about 1% for safety, but you may want to pick a different amount depending on your circumstances and also the amount of confidence you have in your tipster. This is by far the best plan when starting with a new tipster who you have not used before, so have no real idea of what to expect. If he does not deliver, then you will not lose too much money finding out.staking plans

With this plan there is less risk than almost any other staking plan. If you are betting on more than one horse per day then you can place all your bets before the racing starts. With most of the other plans you have to wait to see if your bet wins and then adjust your stake on the next one and so on. If you keep a record of your bets and returns, as you should, you can easily see if you are making a profit or loss. I know that most of the tipsters will give you a monthly summary of this, but some of them claim to get better odds than their clients can ever get so it's best to keep your own records.staking plans

Disadvantages are you can't gain anything extra and rely on your tipster being able to make a profit at level stakes. It is recommended nevertheless and is many professional punters' favourite. Of course it is available to use in the Betgem Calculator, in 5 different tables.

staking plans 

Martingale staking plans

 staking plans

The infamous Martingale or "double up" plan is simply to double the stakes after a loser until you get a winner which should then recover your losses and make a good profit (providing that the winner is at good odds). You can also use a variation of this by stopping after a certain number of losers and restarting at the minimum stake (See the Reverse Martingale). The idea is that the next sequence of bets will hopefully get a winner which will recover all your losses. You have to start with a very low first bet, but even then it does not take many losers before stakes get very high. E.G. - starting with one point the sequence would be 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512 etc.staking plans

 staking plans

Although it can make big profits when it works, stakes get wildly out of control after a few losers and your nerves will probably not stand a bad losing run. Also, it can be difficult to get very large bets on in a hurry, bookies may refuse them, causing you to miss a bet. Overall this plan is too dangerous and is not recommended in its standard version. staking plans

 staking plans

The Betgem Calculator has a special section called "progressive betting", which uses the principles of the Martingale plan but with a twist-odds can be greater than 2 (unlike outside bets in roulette) and there is a limit to the number of bets placed in any single progression, the number depends on adds and style of play etc. but the calculator has a maximum capacity of 15 levels (to be used with longest odds). So with good discipline and a good strike rate it can be very profitable and earn more than level stakes and this is the reason why it is included in the Betgem.

staking plans 

Reverse Martingalestaking plans

This is a double-up plan with a difference, you start with a one point bet and then double your stake on the next bet after a winner. If the next bet also wins, then double again, for a maximum of three times. If any bet loses, or after three winners revert to the minimum stake (one point).

 staking plans

If you get a long losing run, you are only losing 1 point on each bet. When you get a run of 3 winners the doubled stakes ensure a good return. If one of the winning bets at doubled stakes is at high odds your return will be very good indeed.staking plans

 staking plans

This plan aims to wait for a winning run of three and then take advantage of it. The drawback is, as you can see from the above example, it still depends on a favourable pattern of results, otherwise you just lose your doubled stake.staking plans

 staking plans

Recommended only if you often get long losing runs followed by a cluster of winners!staking plans

 staking plans

5-7-9Plan

First divide the bank by 9 which gives you the first stake.

If selection loses:

Divide Bank by 9 again to find second stake

Continue dividing by 9 until a winner

After a winner:

Divide bank by 5 (always divide by 5 after a winner)

If next selection loses:

Divide bank by 7 to find next stake

If Lose:

Divide by 9 and continue dividing by 9 until a winner

To summarise:

1/9th of betting bank until a winner

1/5th of betting bank after a winner, until a loser

1/7th of betting bank on next bet

If 1/7th wins, stake 1/5th on next bet.

If 1/7th loses, stake 1/9th on next bet

Advantages: Can make big profits if you get 3 or 4 winners on a roll.

Disadvantages: If you don't get the winners together then the plan doesn't work and you end up putting the largest stakes on the losers, as in the above example. This is sure to happen often, even if you bet on odds-on horses. Another drawback is that dividing the bank by 9 for the first stake means staking over 10% of the bank, and the stakes will get higher. Far too risky.

Recommended? No! it could make you a lot of money if you are very lucky, but it is much more likely to lose your bank in no time at all.

Cover to win

The cover to win plan is an attempt to win a fixed amount of money by means of increasing the stake after each loser until you get a winner which will recover the losses and also win the amount planned. This is done by calculating the stake to win the chosen amount at the odds available and recover any losses you have already incurred.

Advantages: The plan will always work, providing that you are able to get your required stake on the eventual winner.

Disadvantages: Extremely risky! When you get an inevitable losing run, the stakes rise alarmingly, especially if you have to bet at low odds. If you don't bet at low odds then you are even less likely to get a winner. Sooner or later you are going to lose a lot of money, if not all of it! You can't bet at SP either, since you must know what the odds are first to calculate your stake.

Recommended? No. This is a plan which works most of the time, then eventually crashes and loses the bank if you carry on using it. Even when it does work you will be betting vast amounts just to win a few pounds. Far too risky.

D'Alembert

This is a simple plan named after Jean Le Rond d'Alembert, a French mathematician and physicist who was born in 1717. Often used for roulette, it requires you to increase your stake by one point after a loser and to decrease it by one point after a winner. No account is taken of the odds or whether you are in profit after a winner or not. It only sets the stakes according to the number of winners and losers.

Advantages: This is another plan which ensures that the highest stakes go on the winners and lowest stakes on the losers. It will usually gradually increase your stakes (unless you get more winners than losers) but the plan reduces stakes after a winner stopping them getting too large too quickly.

Disadvantages: As usual, long losing runs cause a problem and can ruin the plan. These will cause long periods where you are losing money, but can get back in profit eventually if your selections are good enough in the long run.

Recommended? Yes. With caution. This can be a good plan for bets at around 1/1 or odds-on, (roulette odds for red or black are about 1/1)

Fibonacci

Leonardo Fibonacci was an Italian mathematician born at Pisa around the year 1170. He discovered this series of numbers which occur many times in the natural world.

    1. Start with the number 1 and then 2. (points)

    2. Add them together to make the next number (3).

    3. The next number in sequence is calculated by adding the previous two together and so on.

The sequence therefore always starts as follows - 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, etc.

Advantages: Raises stakes progressively, but not too rapidly.

Disadvantages: This is not a magic formulae guaranteed to produce a profit! Stakes will still get too high on a long losing run and can cause heavy losses if you have to give up. Making a profit on the sequence still depends on the odds of the eventual winner. Odds-on winners will probably not be enough.

Recommended? Yes, if you are fairly confident of getting a winner within about seven races.

Kelly

Named after John Kelly, an engineer, who invented the plan in 1956. It's not possible for me to give an example on this one, but you should find more information on the Web.

The Kelly formula gives the optimum bet size as a proportion of your bankroll, and it can be expressed simply as:

Stake = Edge / Odds

 'Stake' is of course the amount you are betting, Edge is your expected average yield (profit on turnover) over a long series of similar bets, and 'Odds' are the fractional odds you are being offered on the event. If you know that for a particular system or tipster you have a 5% edge, i.e. over the long run, you will probably make 5% profit on turnover. If your horse is available at 5/2. then your bet is 2% of your current bankroll.

Advantages: This method should place the optimum stake on your horse and give you the maximum profit that you could expect from the size of betting bank you have.

Disadvantages: The Kelly plan has been said to be the answer to the whole question of how much to stake on your bets. However, the difficulty lies in working out what edge you have. (If you don't have an edge then, according to the plan, you should not bet at all!) Also, profitability changes all the time and if it goes the wrong way then you could find yourself placing large bets on losers and be out of pocket for a long time before things start to improve.

Recommended? Maybe, if you are a mathematician you can make this work. Good luck!

Labouchere

This is another staking plan used for betting on roulette (red or black, at about 1/1) and can be utilised for horse racing favourites at around the same odds. First take 0.1% of the bank as 1 point. (£1000 bank = £1/point). Next write down a series of numbers from 1 to 9, these represent points that you will stake. Next add the first and last number together to give you the first stake (E.G. 1 + 9 = 10) Note that the stake is always the sum of the first and last numbers. If the bet wins, cross out the first and last numbers and add the new first and last numbers to get your next stake, and so on. If you lose then write your last stake at the end of the line and add the end numbers as usual. When all the numbers have been crossed out you will have finished the sequence and should have made a profit. In the event of a long losing run, your stakes will keep increasing so you will have to decide beforehand on a "maximum loss" figure at which you stop the sequence and start again with a new set of numbers (1 to 9). Otherwise the stakes will get out of control and possibly lose your bank altogether.

Advantages: Increases stakes after losers, but not too rapidly. If you set a stop-loss figure , losses will not get too big on losing runs.

Disadvantages: No use unless your bets are always at about evens and do not have very long losing runs.

Recommended? Maybe. I have not studied this plan and don't really understand how it works but it does not look too risky, and the higher stakes go on the winners, so it could work if your strike rate is around 50% or so..

Percent of bank

The stake is a percentage of your betting bank at the time of placing the bet. The first bet is therefore a percentage of whatever bank you have set up for betting. If the first bet loses then the bank reduces by that amount and the next bet is a percentage of this amount so will be less than the first bet. If you have a winner and the bank increases then your next bet will be more than the first bet. You continue to bet at the same percentage of whatever your bank is at the time.

Advantages: This is one of the less risky plans. As you can see from the example above, the stakes reduce on a losing run so you lose less. Punters using this plan claim that you can never lose the whole bank as you are always betting with a percentage of it. If you get a run of winners the stakes increase to take advantage of it.

Disadvantages: You can see above that the highest stakes are always on the losers and the lowest stakes on the winners. This is not good staking and reduces your bank even more as it continues. The only way this plan works well is when you are getting more winners than normal and would be making a profit at level stakes (if only!). Certainly you will never lose the whole bank (in theory) but if you keep losing bets, it could reduce to £1! or less. Try getting 5% of that on at your local bookies!

Recommended? Only if you can make a good profit at level stakes.

Percent of maximum bank

The stake is a percentage of what your betting bank was at it's highest point. The stakes are not reduced after losers but stay the same until your next winner or winning run increases the bank to a higher level. The stake is then a percentage of this new level.

Advantages: The winners you get always have the highest stake on them and stakes only increase a lot if you have already had a winning run or maybe one winner at long odds. Stakes will not increase if you are not winning.

Disadvantages: Although better staking than the Percent of bank plan, it still depends on a favourable pattern of results and will not work unless you are already making a level stakes profit. For instance a good winning run would increase the stakes then a long losing run at the higher stakes would quickly drain the betting bank.

Recommended? Only if you can make a profit at level stakes and do not expect big winners followed by long losing runs.

Retirement plan

First you need to work out the average odds of your winning bets, which can be done by dividing the profit from your winners by the number of winners. This should be done after at least 20 winners to get an accurate figure. You then double this figure to give a number for the divisor which will be needed. Your first bet is 1% of the bank and you also need a target which is calculated by multiplying the divisor by your first bet.

If the first bet wins, continue with 1% of the original bank for the next stake. If it loses, add the loss to the target and divide by the divisor to get the next stake, and continue until you get a winner or until the number of losing bets equals the divisor. After this increase the divisor by one for each subsequent loser. When you get a winner, deduct the profit from the target, then look back to see what the divisor was at the point where you had this target amount last time and use this divisor for your next bet. When the bank increases by 200 increase the target by 10. This safeguards the bank over a period of time.

You will have to study this to understand it properly as it is a little complicated at first sight.

Advantages: Stakes do increase after a loser but are kept fairly low until a winner so there is very little risk of losing the bank, even on long losing runs, as long as you have followed the instructions and started with 1% of the bank.

Disadvantages: No spectacular profits (but no spectacular losses either!). You need a level stake profit, or at least break-even, otherwise the bank will just keep reducing.

Recommended? Yes. This is a very safe plan since it can withstand a long losing run without breaking the bank. The Retirement Staking Plan should increase your profits if you can at least break even when betting at level stakes.

Variable liability to odds

The logic behind this plan is that the chances of a horse winning are about the same as the odds available, so the stakes are varied to reflect this fact. First, a percentage of the betting bank is chosen. This figure then becomes the amount that you aim to win on each bet. The odds of the horse that you are betting on are then taken into account so that you can calculate the stake.

Advantages: The less chance a horse has, the less stake money is risked on it, so the horses more likely to win carry the highest stake, and those less likely to win carry the lowest stakes. One of the few plans that is less risky than level stakes.

Disadvantages: Although you have less liability on the higher odds horses, you pay for this if they do win when you only gain the same as you would from a low priced favourite. Not very exciting.

Recommended? Yes. It does not increase stakes after losers and risk your bank, but it does not give you any real advantage either. Might be worth trying. Note - If you are betting odds-on you will have to stake more than the aim figure.

Variable liability to odds - 2

This staking plan is the opposite method used in the Variable liability to odds plan. The idea behind this plan is that when you get a horse selected at good odds, it raises the stakes to take maximum advantage of the odds, if it wins. First the bank is divided  by 200 to get 0.5% stake units. One unit is the the stake for a bet at 1/1, 2 units for 2/1......and so on. Bets at odds-on can be set at 1 unit as it is not worth betting less than this.

Advantages: When you get a win at good odds, the stakes on it are high and the payout is very good.

Disadvantages: You will get many losses at high stakes before you get a good winner. The low odds horses will win more often but will have low stakes on them and not make much.

Recommended? Not really! This is a wild sort of plan and could quickly deplete your bank if the high odds horses are not winning. Having said that, it can show surprisingly good results if you can get a few high priced winners. In the above example, if the 4/1 horse had won, you would have had £20 stake and won £80! Definitely not for the cautious type of punter.

Variable stakes

This plan varies the stakes according to the confidence that you or your tipster has in the horse or the value that you appear to get from the odds available. The tipsters using this plan will ask you to divide your betting bank into "points" giving an amount to each point, then will recommend how many points to place on each horse. This can work if the tipster knows what he is doing, but it is annoying when you place a bet at maximum points and the horse loses! Conversely you can get a bet given at only one point and the horse wins at good odds. You might want to decide the points stake yourself and if so then good luck!

Advantages: Places most money on the more strongly fancied horses and less on the others.

Disadvantages: Works against you when the strongly fancied horses don't win and annoys you when the long-odds horses do win and you have only got a low stake on them!. It's very difficult to calculate whether a horse is a "value bet" or not. Tends to bring your (or your tipsters) personal opinion into the staking calculations, not always a good idea.

Recommended? Yes - if you can make more profit than level stakes, and are experienced enough to gauge the value and set the stakes.